2011. jan. 15.

Milward Brown and Dynamic Logic: 11 for 2011

Top 11 digital predictions for 2011

Millward Brown’s Futures Group has identified 11 digital trends for 2011 in its latest research report, Digital Predictions for 2011. (Download)
The report offers an insight into what we can expect to see in the digital marketing world in 2011. It's not exclusively mobile-focused, but there is a bit of mobile in there, and we know our knowledgeable readers are interested in the bigger picture, so without further ado, here they are.
Brands will be forced to straddle their presence between the public open web and semi-walled gardens, as surfing the web is increasingly replaced by running apps or viewing pages on Facebook. These application and fan page ‘gardens’ are popular because they allow marketers to control and simplify consumer interactions. However, brands will increasingly need to tend multiple ‘gardens’, often building different apps for specific platforms, to ensure they are both relevant and present everywhere their consumers want to encounter them. “It may be easier to drive traffic to a fan page than an ecommerce site, so brands need to be increasingly clear about whether their online objective is engagement or sales.” says Millward Brown global innovations director, Duncan Southgate. “They must also decide whether to have different offers on Twitter or Facebook than on the brand website. Experience and research will help marketers pull the pieces of the puzzle together.”
Evolution of online shopping as Augmented Reality technologies bridge the intangibility gap. Despite some remaining fears around disclosure of personal information, online shopping will continue to grow strongly. Many countries will follow the US in their enthusiastic uptake of collective buying services like Groupon. There are currently more than 500 of these sites in China, though many are expected to fade into obscurity. In the UK, mobile shopping apps will be particularly popular, while in India, Millward Brown expects to see growth in online travel ticket buying that helps consumers bypass long queues at stations. Globally, the company also expect brands to use innovative new technologies, including AR, to help bridge the ‘intangibility gap’ that exists because consumers can’t touch and feel a product they buy online.
Online display explodes out of its box. Marketers will increasingly attempt to deliver immersive and engaging branding messages within the ad itself, using expandable formats and interactive features which often replicate part of the experience of a microsite or social media page. In line with this objective, display formats are constantly transforming, and many new formats are growing in popularity. These include: double-teaming, where planners combine multiple formats on the same page; social titbits where banners include a taste of live social activity such as a Twitter feed; and slide-up formats, which use small but intriguing imagery to capture attention, and then expand to take over larger portions of the screen. 
Viral video is no longer an afterthought. Viral potential is now an increasingly important element of digital campaign planning. More readily available viral measurements - such as Millward Brown’s viral potential pre-test and Kantar Video’s in-market tracking - allow marketers to better plan, monitor and adjust  accordingly. Viral potential is no longer considered a nice to have, but is becoming a key success criteria for any new communications idea. However, the creative challenge could get ever harder as each new viral hit raises the bar of consumer expectation. Advertisers may need to be more distinctive than ever. To counter this, more advertisers will promote their ads in a viral environment, particularly since Millward Brown’s recent YouTube research shows that paid online promotion generates a ‘free’ incremental viral bonus over and above the paid views.
More ‘made for web’ video content. With online video advertising spend in a high growth phase, marketers globally are likely to invest more effort optimising their online video creative in 2011. Dynamic Logic research has shown that repurposed TV ads can effectively generate awareness, but made-for-web video tends to be better at driving persuasion.
More mobile eyeballs. The improved performance capabilities of mobile devices mean that more people are online, more of the time. Marketers will seize this opportunity, particularly since newer devices enable better mobile ad experiences. Mobile advertising budgets will increase significantly over 2010 and the brand impact achieved from mobile will continue to out-perform online through 2011.
Brands find their places with geo-location. Today, geo-location is all about ‘checking in’, but 2011 will provide a more rewarding experience once the user has checked in, and Millward Brown also expects to see a development in “check out” features (e.g. suggestions of where to go next). The company also expects to see growth in apps such as Shopkick that automatically award points/promotions upon entering a store. The arrival of Facebook Places alongside services such as Foursquare means that more brands will use location as an app feature, as a communication platform, a fan page feature or as the key to a deal, possibly tied in with loyalty card data. Brands which don’t have locations of their own will seek out appropriate tie-ups. 
Search: increasing personal, mobile and impactful. Consumers will trade privacy for relevance. Links with social media profiles, search history and behavioural segmentation will allow greater search relevance for users prepared to share this information with search engine providers. Mobile search will make further gains as developers take full advantage of the unprecedented breadth of information available and consumers realise the benefit of searching via apps such as Google Maps. Search results will also become more visually impactful, increasing the need for marketers to understand the brand impact of search.
Gaming on the move. The recent launches of Sony’s Move and Microsoft’s Kinect have breathed new life into the Playstation and Xbox consoles, and will drive further innovation in game design during 2011. Meanwhile, casual gaming, driven strongly by the capabilities of Apple’s iPhone and iPod touch, is likely to grow further as these gamers continue to feed their app-snacking habits, and developers take full advantage of the larger iPad interface. Growth in the use of social games is also likely, assuming developers such as Zynga can build on the success of FarmVille and Mafia Wars. Research from Dynamic Logic has revealed that brands can benefit from in-game branding where it’s seen to be relevant, and Millward Brown predicts this to be a growth area in 2011.
Social graphs will make targeting more relevant. Relevant social integration can delight consumers. A recent Firefly Millward Brown study revealed that people are looking for brands in social media to be more relevant to their needs. Consumers will remain active in the biggest social network (Facebook) because so many contacts are there, but they may increasingly be more engaged in other niche networks that play to their particular interests.  Facebook’s scale provides excellent targeting opportunities for brands, but to really be effective, sophisticated algorithms are needed to make sense of the complex relationships between people.
The battle for online privacy will intensify. Marketers will make progress on the development of online transparency frameworks as consumers are increasingly empowered to look under the bonnet. They will avoid regulatory measures to protect online privacy by enabling users to manage their own profiles and by being clearer about their data models. Despite these efforts, however, the battle will continue between regulators and the industry about the scope of personal information which forms the building blocks of online identity.

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